Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to continue that way if not weakening more for at least the next week. Swell dropping on Thurs (6/24) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0 ft). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Swell peaking on Sat (9/19) at 1.2 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina. Swell continues on Tues (9/22) at 1.8 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). High Seas Forecasts description: North Pacific Ocean Updated: Mon, 14-Sep-2020 22:03:46 UTC East and Central North Pacific Ocean (Metarea XII) Updated: Mon, 14-Sep-2020 23:26:14 UTC: Pacific Hazard Products. Monday (9/28) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and fading in coverage later with light winds for Central CA all day building up to Pt Arena later. But on Mon (9/28) a new trough is to start building south of New Zealand with 110-120 kt southwest winds lifting northeast to 52S offering some support for gale development southeast of New Zealand. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Swell continues on Tues (9/22) at 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Swell holding on Mon (9/28) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). East of there the jet was falling southeast east of the California swell window pushing over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. Hi-res Overview: (9/18) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline.
Surface Analysis The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. On Sat AM (9/12) west-southwest winds were pushing east over a decent sized area at 40-45 kts with seas 44 ft at 57.5S 169E aimed east (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 212 degs NCal and unshadowed, 197 degs HI). On Tuesday (9/21) no meaningful locally generated windswell was occurring in North or Central CA or along the East Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. Tues (9/22) northwest winds are to be 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early and near 15 kts everywhere in the afternoon. See chart here - link. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/28.
: See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). PACIFIC OVERVIEW NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: The gale is to hold on Sun AM (9/27) off North Canada with 30 ft seas targeting British Columbia and maybe the Pacific Northwest. Sea Level Anomalies: (9/15) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 160W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. The gale is to fade some in coverage in the evening while tracking east with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 45.5N 152W aimed southeast.
Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/20) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. On Sun AM (9/20) southwest winds were 40 kts over a solid area with seas building to 39 ft at 60S 172W aimed east-northeast.
Swell building on Mon (9/28) to 2.3 ft @ 20 secs later (4.5 ft). This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
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